Seagull Strikers

This week’s post looks at predictions for the new season that I believe will happen, but most likely, will make me look silly in May.

Top Scorer

This is a wild card and holds an element of the unknown this season. Parris and Fran Kirby shared the most WSL goals (7 a piece) and Parris was the clubs top scorer overall.

Goals were spread throughout the squad last season as injuries, inconsistent selections and inconsistent performances meant the forward line was not always settled. Michelle Agyemang scored 5 goals last season so it would be a big jump to move from 5 to the 10/12 goals that will likely make you Brighton’s top scorer. Her goal to minute ratio is good as she only played 6 games worth of minutes so it’s not impossible.

Madison Haley has looked sharp in preseason securing a hatrick against Levante and might be given substantial minutes in the centre forward position when the new season starts.

Fran Kirby’s numbers are always boosted by penalties and despite a couple of instances of playing her as a false nine last campaign I can imagine she’ll be outscored.

Personally, I think the top scorer will be whoever Vidosic gives most centre forward minutes to. We have increased the althletism of midfield and pre-season so far showed a deadly increase of off the ball midfield runs. I think they’ll be lots of loose balls, rebounds and messy finishes for a forward to pick up.

Prediction: Michelle Agyemang with 11 goals

Goals scored

Yes, we lost Nikita Parris to London City Lionesses and not replaced her with proven WSL talent but Parris only scored 7 WSL goals last year and the potential for our forwards is quite high. The key word there is potential, if Kafaji, Agyemang, Camacho and Masaka struggle to have an impact and the likes of Cankovic, Haley and Seike have inconsistent seasons then we could obviously have a very dysfunctional attack.

However, my gut/ pre season optimistism tells me these players will be able to make it click and our attack will be diversified enough that we will score slightly more goals than last season.

Prediction : slightly more goals scored

Top Assister

The ability to link the attack together, coordinate the press and assist is where we will hugely miss Parris’ presence as she ended the campaign with 5 assists.

This season, I suspect it will be a three way battle between Rachel McLauchlan, Fran Kirby and Rosa Kafaji. McLauchlan has already laid down her attacking marker in pre season by setting up a considerable amount of goals cutting back/pinging across goal from the right hand side. She was dangerous in these areas last season too picking up 4 assists in the league.

Fran Kirby operates and orchestrates in the final third so along as she doesn’t suffer another long term injury will be one of our most creative players.

As I suggested in a previous blog, Kafaji is an exciting and creative signing who thrives in the final third as a playmaker and dribbler. If she gets substantial minutes over Seike and Haley and is not an understudy to Kirby then she could be one of the most creative players we have seen.

Prediction: Rachel McLauchlan

Goals against

The defence has been overhauled this season. The entire makeup, identity and ability level is different to last year. This years crop are more athletic, more aligned with Vidosic’s playstyle and there is a depth and variety to our defenders. This is before you get to WAFCON winner Nnadozie in goal.

We conceded a lot of unnecessary goals from building up the back last season and, in theory, we have taken steps in personnel to correct this.

Prediction: we will concede fewer than 40 goals

Position

Last season was a historic fifth, the season before was a disappointing 9th. I suspect, this season will be more of a middle ground between the two.

The optimist in me says Brighton have worked smartly in the transfer market, have a squad more suited to a manager who has a clear tactical plan and have been good in pre-season…..the foundations are there to potentially finish 5th and be the best of the rest for two consecutive seasons.

However, other WSL teams have not stood still and the league has become more competive. London City Lionesses may not be the Crystal Palace of last year and give away as many points. Aston Villa, Everton and Liverpool will likely have stronger seasons and we could end up in an unusual scenario where our underlying numbers improve, such as goals scored but our league position. Our goal difference last year was remarkably similar to West Ham yet they finished four places below in 9th, which shows you the distribution of goals matters a lot and how a lot will depend on where the top four drop points.

As you can probably guess, I think Brighton will be anywhere between 5th and 8th with Everton, Aston Villa and Liverpool (although I’m less sure about Liverpool) all being our main rivals for 5th.

Prediction: Finish 6th

Random Prediction

This will be Vidosic’s final season at Brighton as he leaves us in May to take over a “bigger” team either abroad or in the WSL. With increased media attention on the WSL after the women’s Euros and the spotlight being on Brighton having secured Agyemang, Vidosic will leave having significantly enhanced his reputation. I hope this one doesn’t come true but at least it would mean Brighton are in a good place!

Overall, I think we will have a good season by most metrics but fans will be slightly disappointed that we couldn’t achieve 5th two seasons in a row.